Maui Real Estate Numbers: What does it tell us?

So you read the statistics but what does it really tell us? How is it useful to you? Is the Maui Real Estate Market shifting?

Here are the latest June 2022 Maui Real Estate Statistics: Click here

Realtors Associations of Maui wrote: 

June 2022

New Listings increased 1.4 percent for Single Family homes but decreased 18.6 percent for Condominium homes. Pending Sales decreased 14.0 percent for Single Family homes and 53.6 percent for Condominium homes.
Inventory increased 0.7 percent for Single Family homes and 3.2 percent for Condominium homes.
Median Sales Price increased 13.6 percent to $1,255,000 for Single Family homes and 34.3 percent to $832,500 for Condominium homes.

Days on Market increased 2.8 percent for Single Family homes but decreased 42.1 percent for Condominium homes.

Months Supply of Inventory increased 17.4 percent for Single Family homes and 25.0 percent for Condominium homes. With monthly mortgage payments up more than 50% compared to this time last year, the rising costs of homeownership have sidelined many prospective buyers. Nationally, the median sales price of existing homes recently exceeded $400,000 for the first time ever, a 15% increase from the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. As existing home sales continue to soften nationwide, housing supply is slowly improving, with inventory up for the second straight month. In time, price growth is expected to moderate as supply grows; for now, however, inventory remains low, and buyers are feeling the squeeze of higher prices all around.

I am going to quote from an article I read which I feel clearly explains the rationale on how to interpret numbers and what is worth tracking.  This is from “biggerpockets.com”. You can read the full article here. 

 A quick note on price drops: They’re worth tracking, but I don’t put much weight on this data point. Price drops often reflect the behavior of overzealous sellers rather than a lack of demand. Following two years of unprecedented seller power, I’d expect an increase in price drops in almost every market—even the strong ones. Huge increases in price drops worry me (Austin, TX has seen a nearly 500% increase in price drops YoY), but seeing double-digit increases doesn’t concern me as much. 

That being said, price drops can be a lead indicator for shifts in the market but should be considered alongside other indicators. 

As I’ve written before, the main trend shifts that need to occur for housing prices to moderate or decline is that both active listings and days on market (DOM) need to increase. You can read all about why I believe this here, but in short, active listings and days on market are good measurements of the balance between supply and demand in the housing market. When inventory and DOM are low, it’s a seller’s market, and prices generally rise. When inventory and DOM rise, buyers gain power, and prices flatten or decline. 

As you can see in this chart provided by Realtor.com, active listings are starting to tick up nationally and are up about 19% over June 2021. To be clear, active listings are still dramatically below where they were pre-pandemic. Still, we’re no longer in the declining inventory (on a year-over-year basis) era that lasted from April 2020 to May 2022. 

So I am going to be tracking the Maui Real Estate Data here on a monthly basis for the near future: This is to try and gauge where we are heading. So keep coming back here to this LivingOnMaui blog for updates!

On July 19, 2022 

Single Family Homes (Maui Island: does not include Molokai or Lanai):  

• Active Listings: 231
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 81
• Pending (under contract): 169
• Median List price that is Pending (under contract): $1,099,000
• Sold units from past week (July 11-17): 14 units
  • cash: 2, conventional finance: 12
• Median Sold Price from past week (July 11-17): $1,213,500
• Average Days on Market for sold homes: 114 days
• Median Days on Market for sold homes: 80 days
• Asking Price %: 98
• Total Volume: $17,597,875

By Area (Single Family Homes) 

Kihei

• Active Listings: 50
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 66

Wailea/Makena 

• Active Listings: 13
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 111

Wailuku

• Active Listings: 34
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 62

Kahului 

• Active Listings: 8
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 41

Lahaina 

• Active Listings: 17
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 88

Kaanapali 

• Active Listings: 12
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 119

Kapalua 

• Active Listings:5
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 160

Pukalani

• Active Listings: 7
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 66

Makawao/Olinda/Haliimaile

• Active Listings: 15
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 83

Kula/Ulu

• Active Listings: 22
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 109

Spreks/Paia/Kuau

• Active Listings:8
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 87

Haiku

• Active Listings: 21
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 54

OCEANFRONT HOMES: 

• Active Listings: 21
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 154

Luxury Homes 3-5 Million range: 

• Active Listings: 28
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 76

Ultra Luxury 5 Million-10 Million:

• Active Listings: 26
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 154

Legacy Properties Over 10 Million and above: 

• Active Listings: 16
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 176

Condominiums (fee simple and leasehold on Maui Island only, does not include Lanai or Molokai)

• Active Listings: 209
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 63
• Pending (under contract): 233
• Median List price that is Pending (under contract): $1,100,000
• Sold units from past week (July 11-17): 21 units
  • cash:10, conventional finance: 10, 1031 exchange: 1
• Median Sold Price from past week (July 11-17): $770,000
• Average Days on Market for sold homes: 76 days
• Median Days on Market for sold homes: 72 days
• Asking Price %: 103
• Total Volume: $19,343,900

By Area (Condominiums) 

Kihei

• Active Listings: 60
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 45

Maalaea

• Active Listings: 5
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 76

Wailea/Makena 

• Active Listings: 23
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 73

Wailuku

• Active Listings: 14
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 57

Lahaina 

• Active Listings: 21
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 72

Kaanapali 

• Active Listings: 26
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 54

Kapalua 

• Active Listings: 11
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 135

Condos listed at 3 Million and above: 

• Active Listings: 28
• Current Average Days on Market for listed homes as of July 19, 2022: 116

On National level: Here is a good article on understanding the dynamics of suppy and demand and also days on market. Here is an excerpt below. Read full article here. 

Look at the dramatic story this chart from Redfin tells. At the beginning of the housing market recovery following the Great Recession, we saw inventory (defined as the total number of active listings on the last day of a given period) at about 2M during the busy summer months. Pre-pandemic, we expected about 1.6-1.7M during the peak summer selling months. 

Right now, inventory is sitting around 600k. 

Think about that. In 2017-2019, prices were still going up when we had over 1.5M homes on the market. Now, we have 600k. Supply remains over 1M properties below where it was pre-pandemic. 

Days on market (DOM), an excellent measurement of the balance between supply and demand, tells the same story. Pre-pandemic DOM was about 45 days. Now? Even with higher rates, it’s still under 20. 

Summary in my humble opinion:

We were in an unsustainable market. It seemed like every bvery sold price was the “new highest record price sold”. Over 20% increases were, well.. you didn’t even flinch at such records. So is it a housing crash? Or a housing moderation from an unsustainable situation? My opinion is the latter. As of today, inventory has increased somewhat but is still historically low. The demand for Maui real estate is still very high but the days of paying whatever the “next highest record price” perhaps have been tempered. However, you can still see that condos sold in the week of July 11-17, 2022 were 103% over the list price. I think what is safe to say is that the “frenzy” has subsided. But don’t let that lull you into thinking you have time because if a property is priced well then someone just might snatch it right up! Another great reason to talk/obtain and be represented by a  trusted experienced realtor to help you navigate the market expertly whether you are a buyer or seller. Because even on an island like Maui, every area/building has microeconomic differences and understanding that can increase your chances of success. Only in hindsight can one tell if their predictions or opinions were right so understanding your particular situation and the present market is important to make informed decisions.

A hui hou…Mahalo

Jeannie

ALL DATA FROM REALTORS ASSOCIATION OF MAUI. INFORMATION DEEMED RELIABLE BUT NOT GUARANTEED.